when will the semiconductor shortage end

  Recently reported that automakers including General Motors, Ford and Hyundai expect that the chip tensions that lasted nearly 2 years will be eased in the second half of 2022, but on the other hand, auto chip makers are expected to take longer to recover.

  According to the report, General Motors CEO Mary Barra expects that the semiconductor shortage will be eased in the second half of the year; Ford predicts that in the first quarter after the sluggish car sales, the second half of the year will be significantly improved; Hyundai expects chip supply will return to normal levels in the third quarter of this year.

  However, NXP Semiconductors and Infineon and other major automotive chip makers believe that despite the increase in production, but the supply of tight conditions will continue.

  The report commented that the automotive industry is facing the most pressing issue of the different views, prolonging the uncertainty of the industry's recovery from the epidemic, and may hinder its efforts toward electrification, safety and driver assistance features such as chip-intensive new technology transformation.

  Consulting firm Alix Partners estimated in September that the chip shortage would cost the global auto industry $210 billion in revenue in 2021 and 7.7 million vehicles in lost production.

  But according to automakers, the trend is indeed changing.

  Tesla expects the chip shortage to continue this year and not ease until next year. The company took a variety of ways to manage chip supply last year, including writing new software to master chip changes.

  Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on an earnings call last month that the chip shortage is not a long-term problem as chip makers increase capacity and automakers recognize that panic buying of chips is slowing the supply chain.

  Chip maker Qualcomm is also optimistic. Qualcomm Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkiwala said: "I do think that many of our peers with us are prioritizing the automotive chip business, and ship as much as possible."

  But the major automotive chip makers are not so optimistic.

  Infineon said that the balance of supply and demand for some chips will improve in the second half of this year, but the mature chip market, which is crucial for automakers, will continue to be tight.

  "Supply constraints are far from over and will continue until later in 2022," said Infineon CEO Reinhard Poulos on an investor conference call.

  NXP Semiconductors also said the industry could not get out of the supply-demand imbalance this year.

  Semiconductor makers have incentives to focus on the latest, most expensive chips, the report said. Apple CEO Tim Cook said, "traditional process" of the chip, that is, for power management and display devices and other less complex chips, the supply is seriously tight, but this quarter has been improving.

  STMicroelectronics (STM) said that the chip factory needs to spend several years to build, and then after several years to reach maximum capacity. The company said in November last year, to 2024 or 2025 to see a significant increase in capacity.

  Ford has partnered with U.S. chipmaker Microchip to reduce its reliance on TSMC's older technology chips, which Ford CEO James Farley described as "feature-rich" for mature process chips.

  "We rely heavily on TSMC for feature-rich, mature chips. Obviously, as the industry moves to more advanced processes, capacity will gradually be at risk, including us," Farley said on a conference call.